Seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone activity
Western North Pacific Australian region

Since 2000, the Laboratory for Atmospheric Research at City University of Hong Kong have been issuing real-time predictions of the annual number of tropical cyclones affecting the western North Pacific. Verifications of the predictions have shown that the predictions are mostly correct within the error bars.

Important Note:
The TC activity over the western North Pacific has a significant decreasing trend in recent years. Our prediction scheme, which was first developed in 1997, with an improvement in 2001, however does not incorporate this trend and therefore overestimated the TC activity during the last few years. The prediction scheme is currently under revision and we will not issue the forecasts for the TC activity over the western North Pacific from the 2012 season.

In addition, starting from the 2014 season, we will be putting out an experimental seasonal forecast using a regional climate model. Details can be found in the Latest Forecast section below. 

Starting from the 2009/10 season, we will attempt to issue real-time forecasts of the annual number of tropical cyclones affecting the Australian region (90°E-160°E, 40°S-0°N) and its subregion (western Australian region, 90°E-135°E, 40°S-0°N). These should be considered as experimental forecasts and verifications will be made after each season.  A more thorough evaluation of the performance of the prediction equation will be made in a few years.





 

 

 



Latest forecast
Experimental Forecasts of Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Landfall in East Asia
[ Details ]
Issued on 02 Jul 2014
Latest forecast
2013/14 TC forecasts NEW
[ Details ]
Issued on 18 Nov 2013
Previous forecasts
2000 April June Verification TC Summary
2001 April June Verification TC Summary
2002 April June Verification TC Summary
2003 April June Verification TC Summary
2004 April June Verification TC Summary
2005 April June Verification TC Summary
2006 April June Verification TC Summary
2007 April June Verification TC Summary
2008 April June Verification TC Summary
2009 April June Verification TC Summary
2010 April
May
June
July
Verification TC Summary
2011 April June Verification TC Summary
2012 N/A N/A N/A TC Summary
2013 N/A N/A N/A TC Summary
2014 N/A June
July
N/A TC Summary
Previous forecasts
2009/10 November Verification
2010/11 November Verification
2011/12 November Verification
2012/13 November Verification
 2013/14 November