the Laboratory for Atmospheric Research at City University of
Hong Kong have been issuing
real-time predictions of the annual number of tropical cyclones
affecting the western North Pacific. Verifications of the
predictions have shown that the predictions are mostly correct
within the error bars.
The TC activity over the western North Pacific has a significant
decreasing trend in recent years. Our prediction scheme, which
was first developed in 1997, with an improvement in 2001,
however does not incorporate this trend and therefore
overestimated the TC activity during the last few years. The
prediction scheme is currently under revision and we will not
issue the forecasts for the TC activity over the western North
Pacific from the 2012 season.
In addition, starting from the 2014 season, we will be putting
out an experimental seasonal forecast using a regional climate
model. Details can be found in the Latest Forecast section
Starting from the 2009/10 season, we will attempt to issue
real-time forecasts of the annual number of tropical cyclones
affecting the Australian region (90°E-160°E, 40°S-0°N) and its
subregion (western Australian region, 90°E-135°E, 40°S-0°N).
These should be considered as experimental forecasts and
verifications will be made after each season. A more
thorough evaluation of the performance of the prediction
equation will be made in a few years.