Updated Forecast of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity 2001

Johnny C. L. Chan and Liu Kin Sik

Issued on 12 Jul 2001

As noted in our forecasts issued on 10 May 2001, updated forecasts will be issued based on the additional information in April and May. The following table gives the various updated forecasts.

 

2001

Original Forecast

Updated Forecast

Normal

WNP:

     

No. of TCs

31 3

32 3

31

No. of TCs with at least tropical storm intensity

27 3

28 3

27

No. of typhoons

18 2

18 2

17

SCS:

     

No. of TCs

10 2

11 2

13

No. of TCs with at least tropical storm intensity

9 2

9 2

10

No. of TCs making landfall along the South China coast

3 1

3 1

5

 

Compared with those issued previously, the changes are minimal. The number of tropical cyclones as well as the number of tropical storms and typhoons are predicted to increase by one while the number of typhoons should remain at 18 as previously predicted. For the South China Sea (0-23oN, 100-120oE), the number of tropical cyclones is also predicted to increase by one but the number of tropical storms and typhoons is expected to be the same as in the previous prediction. The number of tropical cyclones making landfall over the South China coast is forecast to be the same, despite the fact we already had two landfall tropical cyclones (Durian and Utor). We checked the updated predictions and they all consistently give a number between 3 and 4.

 

Fig. 1. Coastline of South China and Hainan (blue line).