Prediction of Annual Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

This project aims to develop a set of statistical regression equations to predict the annual number of tropical cyclones that are likely to occur over the western North Pacific Ocean. Predictors include indices that represent the sea-surface temperature distribution and atmospheric circulation from the year before the prediction is to be made to March of the prediction year. Tests of regression equations using previous data indicate that the predictions can be made with reasonably high accuracy. It is planned that annual forecasts will be made at around April or May with verifications issued at the beginning of the following year. Modifications to the prediction equations will be made to improve the forecasts.

References:

Chan, J. C. L., J. E. Shi and C. M. Lam, 1998: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 997-1004.  Abstract

Chan, J. C. L., 2000: Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Nino and La Nina events. J. Climate (in press)