Ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Motion

The project aims at investigating the possibility of applying the technique of ensemble forecasting to improve tropical cyclone track prediction. The applicability is first verified using a regional barotropic model, with perturbations specifically designed for the environmental flow and vortex circulation respectively. Atmospheric analyses and verification cases are taken from the Tropical Cyclone Motion (TCM-90) Experiment in 1990. Then a full-physics baroclinic model is used to test more thoroughly the effectiveness of certain methodologies already applied to the one-layer model.

References:

Cheung Kevin K. W. Cheung, Johnny C. L. Chan, 1999: Ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Motion Using a Barotropic Model. Part I: Perturbations of the Environment. Monthly Weather Review, 127, 1229-243. Abstract

Cheung Kevin K. W. Cheung, Johnny C. L. Chan, 1999: Ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Motion Using a Barotropic Model. Part II: Perturbations of the Vortex. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 127, No. 11, pp.2617-640. Abstract